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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still