Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
