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Growing apprehensions exist regarding the possibility of military engagement involving Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as confrontational rhetoric has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Did Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for access to the sea coast through Eritrea has triggered a heated verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his country's sea access was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea rejected.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have regularly been difficult. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

Subsequently, a military clash started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Comments from Ethiopian Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated ownership of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and hinted at the desire to take it by force.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the sea as a because of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Despite ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to concise remarks on social media from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for sea access describing it as "hazardous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a policy of reclaiming former lands.

Government spokespeople cautioned on 16 September that moves to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are no reports of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has displayed graduation ceremonies of many recruits at various military training camps.

The leader of human resources department of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the military was in a "strong stance" as "many thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then controlled by the British military before turning into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this system and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year civil war ensued, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Autonomy was then confirmed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, causing conflict in 1998.

Although this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors remained at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two signed a statement that the war was over – a decision that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then allies in the country's recent internal conflict in Tigray.

But ties have since broken down anew.